Shoppers are expected to spend £3.7bn, this Boxing Day, up only 1.3% on 2023, with high streets less busy as shoppers snap up beauty and technology bargains online.
The ability to click for bargains from the sofa means post-Christmas discounts actually begin before most families have touched a sprout or a slice of turkey as it is now possible to begin spending in the sales from midnight on Christmas Eve.
More than 11 million people were expected to buy online on Christmas Day, up 3.6% year on year, according to research by analysts at GlobalData for Vouchercodes. The number of shoppers on Boxing Day is expected to be similar to a rather flat 2023 as a rise in online shoppers is expected to be offset by a fall in those visiting physical stores.
There has been a gradual decline in spending on high streets on 26 December over recent years, according to Diane Wehrle at Rendle Intelligence and Insights, partly because some big retailers – including most John Lewis outlets and Marks & Spencer – choose to give their staff a break and remain closed.
More complex families, which may involve several celebratory meals in different locations, and difficulties with transport all hold up trade on the traditional start to the January sales.
However, last year Boxing Day sales were 7.5% higher than in 2022, led by a 9% rise online, while in-store sales rose by just under 2%, driven largely by inflation.
This year, inflation has eased, which, along with pay rises and benefit increases for many people, has begun to soften the cost of living crisis, leaving more space for spending on treats.
Sales growth on holidays as well as health and beauty are expected to continue to be strong trends in 2025. Beauty sales are being helped by social media promotion, which is driving interest in new premium skincare and cosmetics as well as technology such as LED face masks. The return to working in offices and wider socialising is also helping sales.
However, spending on fashion, which makes up almost a quarter of retail sales, is expected to be down amid discounting prompted by a mild autumn.
Richard Lim, the chief executive of the specialist analysts Retail Economics, said that Boxing Day had lost out to the US-inspired Black Friday and Cyber Monday for bargain hunters. “By the time it comes to Boxing Day most people have done their Christmas shopping and there is not the same kind of appetite to go out on another splurge of discounted sales,” Lim said.
He said the evidence from Black Friday trading was that Christmas trading overall “was going to be OK but we are unlikely to see strong figures”.
Sales are expected to be better than last year as the cost of living crisis is subsiding, and that growth could continue into the early part of next year.
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Premium food, clothing and technology purchases are expected to drive a 5% jump in festive spending to £22.7bn this year, according to figures from the advisory firm PwC, that suggest UK shopping will top the first post-pandemic Christmas in 2021.
However, Lim said Retail Economics was “more pessimistic” about the second half of next year as changes to employer national insurance contributions were likely to spur inflation as they added to costs for retailers.
“Retailers will be passing on those pressures on costs. It won’t be anywhere near the levels of inflation there was a couple of years ago but it will not be where we were expecting it to be,” Lim added.
However, analysts at Mastercard have predicted that consumer spending is likely to strengthen next year as disposable income has risen led by wage growth and reduced savings rates.
They are expecting shoppers to begin “trading up” to pricier brands, reversing a trend towards supermarket own labels and away from designer clothing and footwear brands. Spending on travel, dining out and electronics is all expected to increase.
