The building of a new dam, three times the size of the Hoover Dam, could transform a poverty-stricken country but has the potential to exasperate regional conflict.
The Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) sits on the river Nile in the northern Ethiopian highlands, close to the border of Sudan.
The dam aims to produce an eye-watering 6,450 megawatts of electricity peak power output and has the potential to generate as much as $2 billion dollars per year, a transformative sum for a country where 15% of the population lives in extreme poverty.
But there are fears that Ethiopia’s gain could shift the balance of regional power and endanger neighbouring countries who also rely on the Nile.
With the bulk of the £3.8 billion funding coming from a Chinese infrastructure loan, there are fears too that the dam is a continuation of Xi Jinping’s attempts to grow his country’s influence across the globe.
Ethiopia believes that the dam will produce electricity for 60% of its population who currently live without power.
But the Nile has been a constant source of fresh water for the region for millennia and Ethiopia developing the ability to control its flow has neighbouring countries concerned.
Egypt, perhaps the country most intrinsically linked with the water source, gets 85% of its river flow from the Ethiopian highlands.
It has argued that a 2% reduction in water from the Nile could result in the loss of 200,000 acres of irrigated land.
The country relies on the river to irrigate its crops and receives the majority of its freshwater access from the country.
The country also relies on the flow of the Nile to fill its own hydro-electric power plant, the Aswan High Dam.
Despite unrestricted access, the country is still experiencing water scarcity and fears that in times of drought, Ethiopia could store vast quantities of water to ensure it continues to generate power, leaving Egypt to face the brunt.
Mohammed Basheer of the University of Toronto told the BBC: “There is no agreement on how GERD should be managed during and following periods of drought.
“Without an agreement, Ethiopia might adopt an approach that maximizes electricity generation following droughts, by first recovering storage, which would be unfavourable for Egypt.”
Egypt’s foreign ministry said: “Ethiopia’s unilateral measures are considered a disregard for the interests and rights of the downstream countries and their water security.”
Sudan, who shares a border just with Ethiopia just 19 miles from the dam, has similar concerns.
The country has expressed fears over safety, believing that in the event of failure, or sudden mass loss of water, it would be liable to huge flooding.
Rules on who controls the water and how it can be used hark back to a treaty developed in conjunction with the British in 1929. The treaty gives Egypt and Sudan the bulk of power, with Egypt having a veto in any development projects upstream.
Ethiopia however has dismissed the notion that it should be bound by old colonial treaties and US attempts to mediate in 2019 were largely ignored.
Once operational, will be three times as big as the Hoover dam and will have a surface area the size of London.
