Inflation jumped to 2.3% in October – a six-month high.
A rise in household energy bills contributed to the higher-than-expected reading.
Economists had forecast a figure to 2.2% after a three-year low of 1.7% in September.
But how does all of this affect the cost of groceries, clothing and leisure activities? Use our calculator to find out.
Which prices are increasing fastest?
Unlike previous months, the item with the largest price increase was a non-food product: hair gel. Its price rose from £3.18 to £4.07, a jump of nearly 30% in just 12 months.
Olive oil also rose by close to 30%, with prices for 500ml to one litre rising from £7.16 to £9.16.
Experts have put that price rise down primarily to poor olive yields due to last year’s heatwaves in southern Europe.
However, they expect a significantly better harvest in the 2024-25 season, thanks to significant rainfall in Spain. The harvest could be double the size of last year’s, which may lead to lower prices in the coming months.
Food and drink products are responsible for eight of the 10 biggest increases since last year.
Top five price rises:
• Hair gel (150 to 200ml): up 28%, £3.18 to £4.07
• Olive oil (500ml to one litre): up 28%, £7.16 to £9.16
• Carrots (per kg): up 28%, 65p to 83p
• Iceberg lettuce (each): up 23%, 79p to 97p
• White potatoes (per kg): up 19%, 75p to 89p
Overall, 47 of the 156 types of food and drink tracked by the ONS have actually become cheaper since last year.
There’s good news for fans of a prawn cocktail: frozen prawns and mayonnaise are among the top 10 foods with the largest price decreases.
Overall, 147 out of the 444 products in our database are cheaper than they were 12 months ago.
Top food price decreases:
• Pulses (390g to 420g): down 11%, 76p to 68p
• Frozen prawns (per kg): down 9%, £19.04 to £17.42
• Mayonnaise (390g to 500g/420ml to 540ml): down 7%, £2.20 to £2.04
• Pre-prepared mashed potatoes (400g to 650g): down 7%, £1.12 to £1.04
• Canned tomatoes (390g to 400g): down 7%, 71p to 66p
Of non-supermarket items, kerosene has been the biggest price faller – by a quarter.
What is the effect of long-term inflation?
The price changes described above compare the cost of items to where they were a year ago.
However, inflation has now been at high levels for an extended period of time.
The war in Ukraine, COVID, Brexit, and other supply chain pressures have all contributed to spiralling costs in recent years.
Inflation reached a 40-year high of 11.1% in October 2022.
While the headline inflation figure has come down markedly, any amount of inflation means that prices are still rising, and building on already inflated costs.
We’ve compared the costs of shopping items with what they were three years ago to see what the cumulative impact of inflation has been.
The biggest price rise for groceries over that time has been for olive oil (500ml to one litre), which has increased nearly two-and-a-half times (146%), from £3.72 to £9.16 in the past three years.
Iceberg lettuce is up by four-fifths, with one costing 97p now compared with 54p in October 2021.
Use our calculator to see how much prices in your shopping basket have risen in total since three years ago.
Who is worst affected?
Richard Lim, chief executive of Retail Economics, says: “It’s the least affluent households that are going to see much higher rates of inflation as they spend more of their income on food and energy.”
We’ll continue to update our spending calculator over the coming months so you can see how you’ll be affected.
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Methodology
The ONS collects these prices by visiting thousands of shops across the country and noting down the prices of specific items. There are upwards of 100,000 prices published every month, from more than 600 products.
The items that form the “official shopping basket” change each year to reflect how the purchasing habits of the population have changed. For example in March 2021, after a year of the pandemic, hand gel, loungewear bottoms and dumbbells were added, while canteen-bought sandwiches were among the items removed.
Where there aren’t the exact equivalent items available at a survey shop, ONS officials pick the best alternative and note that they’ve done this so it’s weighted correctly when the averages are worked out.
Shops are weighted as well, so the price in a major chain supermarket will have a greater impact on the average than an independent corner shop.
We will be updating these figures each month while the cost of living crisis continues.
During the pandemic, more of the survey was carried out over the phone and work is ongoing to digitise the system to be able to take in more price points by getting data from supermarket receipts, rather than making personal visits.
Data journalists: Daniel Dunford, Amy Borrett, Ben van der Merwe, Joely Santa Cruz and Saywah Mahmood
Interactive: Ganesh Rao
Design: Phoebe Rowe, Brian Gillingham
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
