In the last few days of the campaign, Dr Anthony Pickles takes a look at the gambling markets and their predictions for Richmond, Clacton and Scotland.
Published 1 July 20241 min read
“As we enter election week, the markets are settled on the overall result, but the knock-on contests are sometimes jaw-dropping.
Rishi Sunak is reckoned to have a 75% chance of holding on to his seat in Richmond and Northallerton. This may seem like a relief, but noncompetitive seats have implied probabilities closer to 95%. There may well be an element of schadenfreude reflected in these odds, but if we assume for the sake of argument, that this represents a reality, a 1 in 4 chance of losing your seat as sitting Conservative PM in rural North Yorkshire is absolutely stunning.
Nigel Farage is looking strong in Clacton. Despite all the bad press for Reform UK, and the undoubtedly skilled politician becoming visibly flustered and angry in media appearances, his percentage likelihood of winning in Clacton has only hardened as the campaign has drawn on. Starting at around 63% when he announced his candidates implied probability as reflected in betting odds is now around 85%. The prospect of Nigel Farage in Parliament has enormous implications for other political questions that will follow after the election.
The state of the SNP vs. Labour must be collared through a few different gambling markets. The markets expect the SNP to gain between 24 and 25.99% of the vote, down from 45% in 2019. Their implied chance of getting the most seats in Scotland is 20%. Their predicted seat numbers are approximately 20, down from 48. Labour are therefore very strong favourites to ‘take back Scotland’.”
