- GBP/USD drops to a fresh YTD low and is pressured by a combination of factors.
- Bets for more aggressive policy easing by the BoE continue to weigh on the GBP.
- Reduced Fed rate cut bets underpin the USD and also contribute to the downfall.
The GBP/USD pair drifts lower for the third straight day on Tuesday – also marking the fourth day of a negative move in the previous five – and drops to its lowest level since November 17 during the Asian session. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.2420 region as traders now look to the UK monthly employment details for a fresh impetus.
According to the consensus estimates, the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits are expected to rise to 17.2K from 16.8K previous and the jobless rate is seen edging higher from 3.9% to 4% during the three months to March. This could offer more evidence that the jobs market is cooling and reinforce bets for at least four rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) this year, starting in June, which should weigh on the British Pound (GBP) and drag the GBP/USD pair lower.
Meanwhile, the immediate market reaction to a surprisingly stronger report is more likely to be limited in the wake of a strong bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD), bolstered by hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. Investors pushed back their expectations for the first interest rate cut by the Fed to September from June following the release of hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation figures. This keeps the US Treasury bond yields elevated and underpins the buck.
Apart from this, persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East turn out to be another factor that benefits the Greenback’s relative safe-haven status. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the downside and any attempted recovery might now be seen as a selling opportunity. Traders on Tuesday will further take cues from the US macro data and speeches by FOMC members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
