Flights over the Middle East are likely to continue to face disruption as the regional conflict escalates.
On Tuesday, airspace above countries including Iran, Israel, Jordan and Iraq was closed when Iran launched missiles into Israel, forcing commercial airlines to alter their flight paths for safety. More than 80 flights were diverted by 16 airlines. Qatar Airways and Emirates were the most disrupted, with Istanbul’s airport the worst affected in the region, according to FlightRadar24.
Andrew Nicholson, CEO of aviation risk management company Osprey Flight Solutions, says the airspace situation is likely going to get worse – especially over Israel, Iran and Lebanon.
“In the very immediate future, we will see most of not all aircraft avoiding the airspace,” he told i. “I don’t think you’ll see resumptions of [commercial flight] operations to Tel Aviv or Beirut in the near future.”
This doesn’t necessarily mean that flights will be forced to divert: “operators will just stop flying, and they will avoid that area,” Nicholson said. “The situation now is so dynamic and so regional, that it could affect any location in that area very, very quickly.”
Which flights and airlines are affected?
The typical flight path from Europe and North America to the Gulf and much of Asia is to over the southeast corner of Turkey and then either Iran or Iraq.
On Wednesday, a delayed Air France flight AF218 from Paris to Mumbai was forced to turn back to Charles de Gaulle Airport when it reached Iraq and the nation’s airspace was suddenly closed, 12 hours after the original departure time.
On Tuesday, numerous flights were forced to divert, including a British Airways flight to Dubai, which diverted to Cyprus.
“Almost every time there is one aircraft that ends up being stuck right in the middle of it,” Nicholson explains – and, often, it can’t be helped.
“[Airlines] should be more objective about the risk assessment, not relying on regulators – which can be pretty slow – and looking at whether other airlines are flying in the airspace,” Nicholson added.
“They need to look at it in a much more information-based intelligence way, and be proactive about their analysis and risk management, while making calls on how a situation will look in, say, a week.”
While it is very difficult to predict what will happen, airlines can theoretically learn from previous incidents.
“The current tactical and operational environment is different from any other conflict, but from an operational perspective, the same challenges are facing airlines as in any other conflict environment – understanding what is going on, then being able to know what to do about it in the quickest space of time,” Nicholson explained.
He went on to add that governments have a significant role to play, but their reporting tends to be “inherently political and not very objective”, which makes the situation more complex for commercial flight operators, particularly those overflying the region or with routes to major hubs such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha. Airlines could be forced to redraw their routes, or divert – sometimes thousands of miles north or south – to avoid sudden flare-ups, often with very little notice.
Numerous airlines fly to and over the region, including Emirates, Qatar Airways, Singapore Airlines, Etihad Airways, British Airways and European carriers such as Air France-KLM, Lufthansa and Finnair.
Despite these last-minute changes and “flights to nowhere”, very few national airspaces are fully closed because, Nicholson explained, “it has a major impact on their economy”, with trade effectively coming to a halt.
Instead, civil aviation authorities or individual airlines tend to make that call, depending on how precarious the situation seems. Risk assessors are constantly looking ahead in unstable regions, but for now the picture in the Middle East looks uncertain.
I am due to fly soon – what should I know?
On Wednesday, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) issued a new Conflict Zone Information Bulletin (CZIB) recommending operators avoid Iranian airspace due to Iranian air defense systems and ballistic missile test launches with no warning. It also recommends avoiding the area around the Lebanon-Israel border and flights to Israel. Airlines overflying the region are avoiding the airspace of Iran and Iraq. However if the conflict escalates further, Jordanian airspace could also be affected.
Qatar Airways flies to Doha from the UK and says that it has “temporarily revised the routing of a number of flights in its operation due to the airspace closures on 1 October and requests customers to monitor the qatarairways.com website for near term travel schedules or call the Contact Centre on +974 4144 5555.” A spokesperson told i, “revised routing, including the possibility of diversions, will have an effect on a number of international flights until all closed airspace reopens. The safety of our passengers remains our top priority.”
Emirates is taking a similar approach, telling i: “We are closely monitoring the situation and are making all efforts to ensure minimal disruption to customers, while assisting those impacted. Emirates advises customers departing or arriving at Dubai International Airport to check their flight status on emirates.com for the latest information regarding their flights.”
British Airways, too, is looking ahead: “Our teams of experts continually monitor our global operation and the areas through which we operate, as well as regulations and government instructions,” the UK flag carrier said. “We would never operate a flight if it was unsafe to do so.”
Flight tracking website Flightradar24 advises passengers to stay aware of the rapidly changing circumstances.
“Travellers can be better informed about their trip and any potential disruptions in a few ways,” a spokesperson told i. “On the day of travel, they can search for their flight, see the aircraft that is scheduled to operate it, and then select that aircraft to see if it is operating on time or if it is running late. They can track their incoming flight to know exactly when it has arrived to have a better idea of when their flight will depart.
“They can also search by airport to see arrival and departure boards to view how disrupted the airport is that day.”
What rights do I have if my flight is affected by airspace closures?
If your flight is delayed or cancelled, under UK rules, airlines have a duty of care. Your airline must fly you to your final destination as soon as possible, as well as providing assistance until departure. This is usually vouchers for food or drink, or overnight accommodation if a replacement flight departs the next day. If this is not forthcoming, you can organise this yourself, then use receipts to reclaim reasonable costs.
Airlines must also give information to their passengers on their rights, including allowing for travellers to communicate messages – for example, refunding the cost of phone calls they may need to make.
Compensation is rarely offered in these events, as it can be deemed that the cause was beyond the control of airlines.
If the situation continues for a prolonged period, it could be worse news for passengers, not just to or over the Middle East.
“If it’s a short term thing, then maybe the airlines will suck extra costs up, but depending on how long this goes on for, those costs will likely get passed on to passengers,” Nicholson warned.
If you want to cancel your holiday to a country in the region, contact your travel provider in the first instance. A “disinclination to travel” could mean that you forfeit the cost of your trip.
If the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) is not advising against travel to your destination, airlines and tour operators are unlikely to cancel flights or holidays, and, therefore, you would not be due a refund.
However, travel companies or hotels may be open to changing the dates of your trip. Some airlines allow you to alter your booking without incurring an admin fee, although you would still need to pay any difference in the fare.
