Chinese electric cars will be funnelled towards Britain as manufacturers seek to avoid punishing European Union tariffs, analysis predicts.
Car makers including MG owner SAIC and BYD offloaded a record number of electric vehicles (EVs) in Europe this summer, as part of efforts to escape incoming taxes imposed by Brussels.
But in a bid to maintain sales, they are now expected to turn their sights on non-EU countries such as the UK, Norway and Switzerland, according to analysis by Schmidt Automotive Research.
Initially, this will see more left-hand drive cars diverted to Norway and Switzerland from other parts of Europe.
However, the analysis said Chinese brands see Britain as a particularly attractive market for right-hand drive cars because of tough policies such as the zero emission vehicle mandate, which compels car makers to sell rising proportions of EVs.
Britain is currently Europe’s second-biggest market for EVs, behind Germany.
Matthias Schmidt, the firm’s founder, said: “If the EU tariffs stick, we would expect the Chinese to prioritise the UK.
“The UK is implementing strict regulatory measures such as the zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, so the Chinese brands stand to benefit from that because of their high mix of EV sales.”
The analysis also found signs that Chinese brands had flogged large numbers of cut-price cars in June, ahead of EU tariffs that came into force in July.
Following an investigation that accused Beijing of massively subsidising China’s electric car industry at every level, Brussels has imposed extra duties of 17.4pc on cars made by BYD, 20pc on those made by Volvo-owner Geely and 38pc for SAIC.
The measures – on top of existing 10pc tariffs – are designed to offer protection for European carmakers, who have complained they are being unfairly undercut.
In an attempt to dodge some of the pain, Chinese carmakers sold a record 25,107 EVs across western Europe in June, roughly 10,000 more than during any other month this year, according to Schmidt Automotive.
Overall, they sold around 95,000 in western Europe during the first half of 2024, compared to 73,000 over the same period a year earlier.
Mr Schmidt said some brands appeared to have adopted unusual tactics to sell so many cars ahead of the tariffs deadline.
For example, he said German dealers had effectively been offering “buy one get one free” deals for SAIC-made MG4 cars, by offering €9,000 (£7,670) for each purchase – enough to put down a deposit for a second one.
“There have been some breathtaking offers,” Mr Schmidt added. “It’s like a supermarket deal.”
While posing a threat to western car makers, the arrival of large numbers of Chinese EVs could prove to be a boon for British consumers. BYD, SAIC and others sell their cars for far less at home in China, with many of the brands still yet to launch their cheapest models in Europe.
