In less than 57 days, Vice President Kamala Harris will go head-to-head with Donald Trump as Americans cast their votes in the 2024 election.
Both candidates are now gearing up for Tuesday night’s presidential debate in Philadelphia, the first since President Joe Biden stepped down from the Democratic ticket in July.
The latest New York Times poll shows Trump scraping into the lead, after weeks of building momentum for Harris — though neither candidate has a clear advantage over the other at this stage.
So how will Harris actually fare against Trump in November?
Harris has a 2.8-point lead over Trump in the latest average of national polls, collated by FiveThirtyEight. On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls.
Yet, a new poll from New York Times/Siena College found that former president Trump is leading Harris by a slim +1-point margin, at 48 percent to 47 percent.
The national poll of 1,695 likely voters, from September 3 to 6, is largely unchanged from the same results in late July — which may be surprising, considering the overall increase in support for Harris in most other polls.
It may be that the polls are settling to a new normal — one that has Trump and Harris in a dead heat.
So why may that be? While Trump has the advantage of three candidacies and one presidency, Harris has had little time to define her policy views in the eyes of the public.
This same poll shows that nearly a third of voters (28 percent) feel they need to learn more about Harris, compared to 9 percent who would say the same about Trump.
Trump is also more trusted on several key policy issues, while Harris is considered “too liberal or progressive” by 47 percent of likely voters.
The gender divide only continues to grow between the two parties’ support: Harris has a +14 point lead among women, while Trump has a +16-point lead among men.
Independents
In a pivotal shift, Harris also leads Trump by +7.7 percent among independent voters, according to a new poll from Emerson College (up to September 4).
Capturing the independent vote will be crucial for either Harris or Trump to take the lead in this election. This is also the most likely group to vote for a third-party candidate, though with RFK Jr. out of the race, this has dwindled to just 4 percent of independents.
The nationwide Emerson College poll has 49.5 percent of independents saying they would vote for Harris, compared to 41.8 percent for Trump.
This is a substantial jump from the same poll one month ago, which showed Harris just inching ahead of Trump (46 percent to 45 percent) among independent voters.
However, 5 percent of independent voters say they are still undecided; and the elusive voter group are difficult to pin down, with higher variation between polls and regions than other demographics. Nonetheless, Harris can be credited with mobilizing the non-partisan voter base, whose support is much stronger since Biden dropped out.
Battling for the swing states
The race for the battleground states is still on, according to a fresh set of CNN polls published September 4 (data up to August 29).
The polls show that Harris is leading by +5 points in Michigan, and +6 points in Wisconsin.
Meanwhile, Trump has a +5 point lead in Arizona, a state which has voted Republican in every presidential election since the 1950s — except 2020, when Biden won the state by 0.3 percent.
Yet in Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, the poll has Harris leading by 1 point or less; a toss-up between the two candidates.
In Pennsylvania, the poll shows Harris and Trump locked in a tie at 47 percent and 47 percent. The state has been a near-weekly stopping point for both parties, and will host the first Trump-Harris debate on September 10.
Trump stopped in the state on Wednesday for a Fox News event, while Democratic VP candidate Walz put in face time at a local Pennsylvania farmers’ market.
Overall, battleground polls have consistently shown that Harris has picked up momentum from her predecessor’s trailing support, and is on-track to lead Trump in some states.
Demographics
An Activote poll shows that Trump’s key supporters remain male voters, the 65+, and white voters with no college education.
However, Harris and Trump are tied in the 50-64 age group in this poll, which previously leaned Trump.
Harris polls best with young voters, female voters, and Black voters, among whom Harris has a +52 point lead.
Meanwhile, Trump has a +6 point lead with Latino voters.
While Trump is taking home rural voters, at 63 percent, Harris leads among both urban-resident (58 percent) and suburban voters (56 percent).
Suburban voters chose Trump over Hilary Clinton in 2016, while in 2020, Biden flipped the lead for Democrats.
Are voters convinced?
A separate ABC News/Ipsos poll up to August 27 shows that the American public thinks that Harris is doing a better job on her campaign overall, while Trump is in the red.
The poll also suggests that a third of Trump supporters (31 percent) have reservations about their choice.
This is nearly double the amount of people who support Harris with reservations (18 percent).
It seems Harris has inspired more devotion from Democrat supporters, as the same poll in July found that 34 percent of Biden supporters had reservations about his candidacy.
In July, just 34 percent of Biden voters strongly supported his candidacy, compared to 60 percent who now strongly support Harris.
However, one in five Harris voters are acting mainly out of dislike for other candidates; while just 9 percent of Trump supporters feel the same.
While the DNC from August 19 to 22 made little dent in the overall Harris-Trump split, the gender divide between the two candidates’ support continued to grow.
The number of women supporting Harris increased by +3 points from pre-convention numbers, to 54 percent, while just 41 percent of women surveyed support Trump.
However, Trump also received a boost of +5 points among men in this period; with 51 percent of men supporting the Republican candidate.
