The destruction of the UK’s North Sea oil and gas operations, and the huge range of related activities, will cause enormous industrial tensions – exposing the chasm between Labour’s relatively wealthy, often urban-based “environmental” voters and its traditional base.
Already, there is growing awareness among voters that “net zero” is aggravating the cost of living crisis. Yes, the UK boasts a relatively high share of what Miliband insists on calling “cheap renewables” – which produced around two-fifths of our electricity over recent months.
But the subsidies involved, added to bills, mean despite the growing use of renewables, or even because of it, UK firms and households are paying almost the highest electricity prices in Europe.
Unless net zero starts delivering soon for ordinary people, instead of just adding to their financial burden, the consensus to pursue the 2050 targets – taken for granted by much of our political and media class – could come under serious pressure.
And as trade unions fight for tens of thousands of blue-collar jobs during Sir Keir Starmer’s “first term”, the resulting environmental-industrial conflicts could tear the Labour movement apart.
The first big test is the incoming ban, from 2035, across Britain and the European Union, on new petrol and diesel cars – with second-hand sales remaining legal.
The Labour manifesto pledged to bring that forward to 2030 – which I strongly suspect won’t happen. I predict the 2035 deadline will slip as well.
Why? Because consumer take-up of electric vehicles (EVs) is far lower than forecast and imposing the planned ban could destroy much of the UK car industry, which employs around a million people – while handing vast swathes of our car market to massively subsidised EVs made in China, which already accounts for around 60pc of global production.
UK car sales, up around 3pc over the last year, remain 15pc lower than before lockdown. Within that, EV sales have slumped, with their market share stuck at around 18pc for the last three years.
