It’s the main event, the crowning jewel, the holy grail of club football.
The 2024 UEFA Champions League final has arrived as Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund contest the biggest and most-watched football match of the year at Wembley Stadium in London on Saturday.
It’s a true David vs. Golaith scrap as 14-time winners Real Madrid, the most successful club in the history of this competition, take on a German side which has won just a single Champions League title back in 1997.
Yet Dortmund, returning to the site of their last Champions League final appearance over 10 years ago, cannot be overlooked, as Edin Terzic engineered a pair of victories over French giants PSG in the semifinal despite their goal battered throughout the two games. They are absorbant sponges of pressure and have proven capable at avoiding concession while threatening on the other end.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid odds for Champions League final
It’s no surprise that Real Madrid are solid favorites in this one-off final, sporting around 2/3 odds to win in regulation and 1/3 odds to emerge with a record 15th European title.
Dortmund, for their efforts, sit at almost 4/1 odds to win in 90 minutes plus over 2/1 odds to win a second Champions League title in club history and a first outside of German soil.
| BetMGM (USA) |
|
| Dortmund win (90 mins) |
+350 |
| Draw (90 mins) |
+290 |
| Real Madrid win (90 mins) |
-135 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -145 N: +100 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals |
O: -145 U: +105 |
| Real Madrid to lift the trophy |
-275 |
| Dortmund to lift the trophy |
+200 |
MORE: A list of the biggest pre-match betting favorites in Champions League final history
Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid prediction
- Moneyline lean: Real Madrid (-135)
- Score prediction: Borussia Dortmund 0-2 Real Madrid
The way Borussia Dortmund have been playing has been extremely impressive, but their route to the final has been unsustainable. First and foremost, the knockout stage bracket was exceedingly lopsided, seeing Real Madrid emerge from a half boasting most of the best teams in Europe, while Dortmund navigated a weakened half with a number of pretenders.
Second, Dortmund were battered across the two legs against PSG, avoiding conceding a goal but seeing PSG rack up a whopping 44 shots and 4.95 xG. While a solid amount of that came across the final half of the second leg with PSG chasing a deficit, it still speaks to an opponent’s ability to find openings in this Dortmund back line.
Real Madrid are extremely well-positioned to hack away at the German side and find room past Gregor Kobel and into the back of the net.
MORE: The best goal scorer, corner, shots, and card props for the 2024 Champions League final
Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid match facts
- Date: Saturday, June 1, 2024
- Kickoff time: 8 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
- Location: Wembley Stadium (London, England)
- Referee: Slavko Vincic (SLV), VAR: Nejc Kajtazoovic (SLV), 4th: Francois Letexier (FRA)
- Last meeting: Real Madrid 3-2 Borussia Dortmund (Dec. 6, 2017 | Champions League, Group H)
Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid key stats
- Real Madrid, with -155 moneyline odds to win in regulation, would be the biggest betting favorite to lose a Champions League final should they fall to Borussia Dortmund. The current record is held by Bayern Munich in 2012, who lost to Chelsea despite being -143 moneyline favorites before kickoff.
- Toni Kroos, set to retire after the Euros this summer, won his first Champions League title at Wembley Stadium in a win over Borussia Dortmund. The German could close out his club career by securing his fifth Champions League title at Wembley Stadium in a win over Borussia Dortmund.
- The last four Champions League finals have finished with a 1-0 scoreline. The last time a UCL final boasted three or more goals coming in 2018 when Gareth Bale’s brace off the bench gave Real Madrid a 3-1 victory over Liverpool.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid team news
The only first-team regular whose fitness is a concern for this match is striker Sebastien Haller whose season has been laden with injuries. Haller has logged just 514 total minutes for Dortmund this season, and hasn’t started a match since mid-September. An ankle injury has his status for this Champions League final, but otherwise just Ramy Bensebaini will miss the match with a knee issue. Everyone else should be available for the German side.
MORE: See the best specials for the upcoming 2024 Champions League final and a parlay pick
Real Madrid will potentially be without goalkeeper Andriy Lunin who has played much of the season but has reportedly come down with the flu ahead of this game. That leaves first-choice Thibaut Courtois, who was left off Belgium’s roster for Euro 2024, to step in and take charge in net for Los Blancos after missing much of the year due to a torn ACL. Madrid will also be without Aurelien Tchouameni who has been out since late April with a foot injury but should be fit for duty with France at the Euros this summer. Those are all the players missing for Madrid, outside of the absence of David Alaba who has been out since the winter with a cruciate ligament tear.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid best bet
- Pick: Under 2.5 total goals
- Odds: +105 (BetMGM)
While both these teams, and Real Madrid especially, boast strong attacking units, there’s tons of suggestion that this will be a match with razor-thin margins. Chief amongst them is the fact that each of the last five Champions League finals have finished under the total, including the last four which all finished 1-0.
Borussia Dortmund, as mentioned previously, have conceded loads of chances to strong European opposition this season, but they have done well to keep a lid on most of those matches. Gregor Kobel has been exceptional in net all season long for the German side, and opposite him will be Thibaut Courtois, who many regard as the best goalkeeper in the world and who has proven he is back to top form after his serious knee injury.
Real Madrid finished their league season with a cagey 0-0 draw against Real Betis last time out, and while Dortmund have shown good attacking form domestically of late, their league performances have not translated to how they play on the continental stage.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid prop bet
- Pick: Real Madrid 16+ total shots
- Odds: -120 (FanDuel)
This is as much a bet on Borussia Dortmund to put Madrid in poor shooting positions than it is on Real Madrid to overwhelm their opponent. Dortmund have conceded nearly 16 shots per 90 minutes in the Champoins League this season, and almost 2.0 xG.
Real Madrid will be well positioned to take advantage of that, as they average 16.8 shots per match in Champions League play, and have their entire attacking unit fit and ready to start. Madrid should have opportunities, it’s a matter of whether they can capitalize.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid flier bet
- Pick: Vinicius Jr first goalscorer and Real Madrid to win
- Odds: +475 (BetMGM)
Vinicius Jr is a big-game player, having scored in a Champions League final already in his career. With Kylian Mbappe likely to join Real Madrid this summer, Saturday could be the last time he participates in a match as big as this as the unchallenged biggest player in the attack.
The Brazilian has taken to scoring early in matches of late, looking to set the tone. Vinicius has scored first on five separate occasions since bagging the opener against Girona in early February, including twice in the Champions League (once against RB Leipzig and again against Bayern Munich). Add in four other goals this season in the first half-hour of matches, and Vinicius is a real candidate to breach Gregor Kobel’s goal early in this game.
With that in mind, in matches Vinicius Jr. has scored in this season, Real Madrid have not lost a single time, securing 14 wins and two draws. If Vinicius finds the back of the net, it’s almost surefire certainty that Los Blancos will emerge with the trophy.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid live stream, TV channel
The biggest match of the 2024 club campaign will be televised in the United States on CBS in English, with a Spanish-language broadcast available on both TUDN and Univision. All of those channels are available to stream on Fubo, who are offering a FREE trial for new users.
The entirety of the Champions League season has been available to stream on Paramount+, and the final will also be made available on the CBS streaming service as well. Paramount+ are also offering a FREE trial to new users.
In Canada, the match will be streamed on Champions League rights-holders DAZN, while in the UK it will be televised on TNT Sports 1 with streaming on discovery+.
