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Betting sites believe Joe Biden is losing ground on Donald Trump in the race to win the US presidential election but are confident he will at least complete his term in office.
Biden, 81, has had to fight scepticism over his ability to run the country during the course of his presidency.
Many Americans think he is too old for the job and his approval rating recently fell to its lowest point for two years.
Mr Trump, by comparison, is a sprightly 77 and remains the frontrunner to win the election despite a series of criminal trials looming over the former president’s head.
With five months to go until the election, betting apps suggest Mr Biden will stay the course and complete his four years. However, not a single betting site has him ahead of his Republican rival.
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Joe Biden Odds
Indeed, in the past week a string of UK bookmakers have chosen to widen their odds on Mr Biden winning the next election.
Whereas he was close to Evens a month ago, he is now 8/5 with £40 if Your First Bet Loses + £10 Casino Bonus” data-brand_id=”924″ data-brand_product_id=”342″ data-offer_id=”949″ data-site_offer_id=”1215″ data-gtm=”pagetext Unibet” data-cta_hash=”2fc06da2-9f48-4167-b613-cf8d4619efe1″ >Unibet to beat Mr Trump. Those odds carry an implied probability of 38.5%, which indicates a 10-point drop from Unibet’s price in April.
Meanwhile, Mr Trump has always been the odds-on favourite to win and is now 4/6 (60% probability) to stroll into the Oval Office come January next year.
The odds shift is indicative of Mr Biden’s perilous position right now. He is struggling to retain support from many left-leaning voters over America’s handling of the conflict in Gaza.
He has lost a lot of support from the right over the country’s support of Ukraine in its attempts to fight back the Russian invasion.
Remarkably, almost a fifth of US voters blame Mr Biden for the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Wade vs Roe and hand states the authority to ban abortions.
The president needs some good news fast but political betting sites don’t think it’s coming.
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Can Biden Beat Trump?
Indeed, things seem to be getting worse for Mr Biden despite his adversary being tied up in court.
Mr Trump’s ‘hush-money’ trial has consumed the Republican’s time and finances, yet he has used each court appearance as an opportunity to speak to the media. In doing so he is generating more and more support.
He leads the incumbent by one point in the national polls and also in five key swing states.
It is states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia that will probably decide the presidential election.
And this is where Mr Biden is struggling. Why? Because Americans aren’t feeling the benefits of the country’s economic upturn. The US economy is thriving but many believe it to be in recession and lay the blame at Mr Biden’s door.
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The best way to set the narrative straight is to push investment projects across the country. But a Republican-majority House of Representatives means spending policies are difficult to enact.
Furthermore, 70% of Republicans and 39% of Democrats believe ‘Bidenomics’ is actively making the economy worse.
Interestingly, though, Mr Trump has not captured the business vote here. While industry leaders are rarely fans of Democratic candidates, they are also displeased with some of Mr Trump’s policies.
The MAGA pledge to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese imports, a 100% tariff on Chinese cars, and 10% tariffs on imports elsewhere has not gone down well.
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Industry leaders generally warm to GOP pledges to reduce corporation tax and slash regulation, but don’t like tariffs.
Mr Trump will have to square this conundrum somehow if he is to secure industry support and the public vote. It shows that Mr Biden isn’t the only one labouring to offer America something the entire country will accept.
With the election already on a knife edge, neither candidate can afford to lose voters.
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