Last Updated: Check out our list of the best political betting sites below and read on to find out key details about betting on politics online.
They say a week’s a long time in politics. Well, it’s also a long time in political betting. Betting on politics is one of the most exciting ways to follow the ever-changing landscape of our society. Unlike wagering on sports, there’s no set structure to political betting, with no fixtures and results list to depend upon for your predictions.
It can be refreshing to place a specials bet with the best TV and Novelty betting sites and the same goes for political betting. Sackings, appointments and shock election wins can happen in an instant. That’s why betting on politics online can be such a fun experience!
When choosing the best site to place a politics bet on, it’s important to take a number of factors into account. Which online bookmakers offer the best bonuses? Which have the best variety of markets? Are your preferred payment methods catered to? All of these questions are taken into account when we analyse the best political betting sites.
You can also rest assured that every bookmaker we recommend is safe and secure, with licenses from respected regulatory bodies like the UK Gambling Commission and Malta Gaming Authority.
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Best Political Betting Odds
Finding the best political betting odds requires a little bit of research. It means when you’re seeking the best politics odds, the best option is usually to go with a bookmaker that provides the top sign-up bonuses and other promos like like free bets. You’ll also find bonuses, free bets and deals specific to political betting markets at the political betting sites we recommend here at Gambling.com.
You can then use these bonuses to place your opening politics bets and get ahead of the game. Political betting sites set their odds to reflect changes to the political landscape but they’re not always as reactionary as sports betting odds. Markets may not change when, for example, fresh polling figures are published signifying that the government may lose the next election.
There are plenty of occasions when the odds will shift, however. Politics odds can be volatile when big news stories break which impact the popularity of a politician or a political party. If a scandalous story reaches the national or even international front pages, you can be sure that gamblers betting on politics online will have their fingers on the pulse. The same goes for press conferences with big announcements, or parliamentary proceedings that send shockwaves through the media. After events like these, the best political betting sites will shift the odds accordingly.
Being quick on the buzzer and staying up to date with the latest political news can certainly help players exploit the odds and get a great price before the markets shift.
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Political Betting Markets
Figuring out which political betting market to bet on isn’t always easy. There are loads of different odds covering eventualities all over the planet. But for UK punters the focus is usually on British, US and European politics betting, with events like the US Presidential election always proving popular.
Recently, bookmakers have started adding more detail to their political betting markets, meaning you can now wager on specific eventualities such as:
- Next UK Prime Minister – Betting on the next UK Prime Minister is usually a flip between the main opposition leader and the most prominent cabinet minister currently working under the PM. Often this market flips after reshuffles as MPs are sacked from and promoted to various top cabinet jobs.
- London Mayor Winner – Usually a toss-up between Labour and Conservatives, the London mayor betting markets don’t change much until the lead-up to the election. The first candidate to get more than 50% of the capital’s votes wins.
- Vote Share in the US Election – American elections are weird because they’re decided on Electoral College votes, which isn’t an equal split of the population. That has meant that, for example, Hilary Clinton could get two million more votes than Donald Trump and still lose. Punters therefore love to bet on vote share as much as the straight-up race.
- Brexit Reversal – Remember Brexit? It hasn’t really gone away, has it? Despite the UK leaving the EU in early 2020, many top bookmakers have a market on a possible Brexit reversal – and a change in government could trigger these odds to crash.
- Joe Biden Betting – Many are speculating if Joe Biden will last the distance after beginning his presidency aged 78. There are plenty of Joe Biden betting markets, including if he will see out his full term – and the odds are alarmingly volatile. Following this market certainly keeps your finger on the pulse of US politics.
- North and South Korea Unification – It was a pipe dream until only a few years ago but there’s always fluctuations in this market. Could North Korea and South Korea eventually unify?
- Gender of the Next US President – The US still hasn’t elected a female president. In fact, only once has a woman even been on the bill. But betting on the gender of the US president could soon turn a profit for backers of Biden’s VP Kamala Harris.
- Royal Family Abdication – Depending on how close a left-wing government is to power, the abdication of Great Britain’s royal family is a discussion that rises and falls out of vogue. The royals work hard to stay relevant but the odds are always shifting.
- Next Country to Exit the EU – Britain did it first and they’re looking for followers, but while France, Italy and Austria have flirted with nationalism, none have so far come close. This market is an excellent gauge of the latest European political movements.
As we’ve outlined, usually politics betting markets aren’t as reactionary as they are with football, horse racing and other sports. Instead, the odds often sit steady for weeks on end before shifting, which means you have plenty of time to make your decisions.
Election Betting
Close to election-time is usually when politics odds heat up – especially in the UK. Westminster resembles the World Cup during election-time because of the multiple-party system in Parliament. And there are plenty of opportunities to make profit during a general election.
A UK General Election takes place every five years under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. It means there is always a date for the next election, although a government can call a snap election if two-thirds of MPs agree to it. This happened in 2019, when there was a rare December election in the UK.
There are 650 constituencies in the UK, meaning a party needs half that figure to secure a majority and form a government. If nobody secures 50% of the seats, a coalition can form or a party can seek to be in charge via minority rule. Neither of these outcomes are as favourable as a majority.
The UK operates a First Past The Post (FPTP) system when it comes to general elections. This means that whichever candidate in each of the 650 constituencies wins the most votes gets the seat. This is controversial as a candidate often is elected by winning around 30% of the votes. What’s more, if that seat had a low turn-out, the candidate could end up representing 100% of their constituents, despite only 15% actually voting them in.
Because of the structure of the FPTP system the two main parties – the Conservatives and Labour – usually win most seats. It means parties like the Liberal Democrats and Greens can attract millions of votes, and barely have any seats in the House of Commons.
The election betting odds are continuously in flux and are calculated by the oddsmakers at a political betting website looking at the latest polls. These trends, along with analysis of data from previous elections, mean the bookies can accurately price up the lead candidates in an election. However, as we saw in America in 2016, the polls don’t always get it right!
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US Politics Betting
US politics betting can produce greater shocks than most other territories. If you’re a punter who prefers a little bit of instability then America is where you’ll thrive.
In 2016, Donald Trump’s victory in the US general election shocked the world – but not so much the bookmakers. They still had Hilary Clinton as the favourite but not nearly as much as the polls. It was thought that Clinton had a 90% chance of winning that election… but Trump came out on top. And the result turned a heavy profit for those who backed the Republican.
US political betting is always a one-v-one contest: Republican v Democrat. This is great during the election campaign as bettors can plot the peaks and troughs of the political odds as gaffes, personal attacks and smears impact on both presidential candidates. Betting on the winning party in the US Presidential election is always a fun route to go down.
Yet many bettors forget that wagering on the primaries is a great way to back individual party candidates over many months and claim strong wins. Barack Obama in 2007 was nowhere near the frontrunner to be the Democratic candidate but surged to beat Clinton as states rallied round him.
It goes to show that US politics odds can be more volatile than in the UK or EU – and that’s good for punters seeking riskier bets at higher profit margins.
Bet on EU Politics
European politics betting is exciting to navigate because there’s always something going on in Europe. Since Brexit the EU has battled to stave off further defections from the trading bloc, and the odds on another EU nation leaving are always changing. The likes of Italy, France, Greece and Hungary regularly pop up as the favourites before sinking back down.
Elsewhere, you can bet on EU politics in individual nations’ general elections. The betting strategy here can be a bit fraught as bookmakers rarely look further than the polls when drawing up their markets. It means punters who are more knowledgeable about European politics can exploit these missteps.
For example, Marine Le Pen was not expected to seriously challenge Emmanuel Macron for the French presidency in 2017 and her odds were way out heading into the election. Le Pen’s Front National party lost to En Marche but due to France’s two-stage voting system, punters were able to back Le Pen early on and then bet against her once her price crashed – in the same way market traders buy and sell shares.
Equally, in Germany, political experts predicted the Christian Democrats would win the 2021 election and remain in power despite Angela Merkel stepping down. But the vote share resulted in a huge split in the Bundestag – and punters who backed the Social Democrats’ Olaf Scholz got a big return on their stakes.
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Why Bet on Politics
OK, we’ll level with you – betting on sport with the best bookmakers can often be a lot more fun than online betting on politics. But it’s fair to say that political bettors often earn greater rewards in the long-run compared to sports punters. Elections take place between every three and five years, prime ministers and presidents rarely get axed, and the polls are usually a good indicator of what’s to come.
People make good profits out of political betting because of its predictability. Tracking polls gives us a general degree of certainty about the outcomes that are ahead of us. What’s more, the fact many political betting markets stretch over many months and even years gives punters the chance to back against their bets when the odds move. They can therefore achieve a payout regardless of the result.
Betting on politics online will give you a better understanding of how the political machine works and what cuts through to the public leading up to election day.
Differences Between Betting on Sports vs Politics
When looking at political betting markets, there are a few more things you should take into account that mark it out as different to sports, games and casino markets:
- The first is that most candidates up for a position are at very short prices, because either public consensus causes a sure-fire outcome or because there aren’t many feasible candidates for the post.
- There’s also the fact that, if you bet in the run up to the election, it can be a risky business because contender credibility can change very quickly, so what was once a promising bet could suddenly be left without a hope.
- There are, though, such a large amount of bets available to you, that there are usually one or two markets that do not offer odds at very short prices.
- Unfortunately, such is the public interest surrounding politics, most people know the winner of an election or a primary before he/she has even been announced, and the bookmakers price their markets accordingly.
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History of Political Betting
Making political bets is nothing new. In fact, it’s hundreds of years old. Merchants apparently wagered on who would succeed King Edward VI when he was on his death bed in 1553. People were offering 4/1 on King George II dying at the Battle of Dettingen in 1743 – a scrap he came through!
Yet the real history of political betting began when stock traders and bankers from London to Wall Street began to wager for and against changes to government. From the 18th century onwards, elections began to seriously impact on economic prosperity when it came to lending credit. Financial institutions opted to insulate themselves from the impact a ‘bad’ election result would have on them, by hedging against the eventuality.
It was not until the 1960s that gambling became widespread across Great Britain and suddenly the public could bet on elections. In fact, so impactful was the gambling industry on British society back then that it supposedly influenced Alec Douglas-Home’s 1963 victory, despite the Conservatives being 5/1 to beat Labour.
These days there are scores of politics betting markets that aren’t just focused on elections. You can bet on anything from how long Boris Johnson will last as UK prime minister, to the colour of the tie worn at a US presidential inauguration. Referendums, party vote shares, even by-elections. In the 21st century you can effectively bet on whatever you like.
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