ABERDEEN Solicitors’ Property Centre Limited, in cooperation with the University of Aberdeen, Business School, Centre for Real Estate Research, has published statistics for the first quarter of 2024 relating to the Aberdeen Housing Market. The report is based on a constant quality methodology. The main points arising from the report are as follows: –
• The quarterly house price change in Aberdeen is -2.9% • The annual house price change in Aberdeen is -1.5% • The annualised house price change over 5 years in Aberdeen is 0.8%
Commenting on these figures, John MacRae, Chairman of the Board of Directors of ASPC said: –
“The report released by the Centre for Real Estate Research at the University of Aberdeen Business School, for the first quarter of 2024 indicates that our local area housing market is continuing to resist easy categorisation. The headline figures will cheer those looking to buy and may encourage prospective purchasers to consider making a move.
The condition of our local housing market is difficult to pigeonhole as there are variations across housing types and areas. For example, Stonehaven remained stable in the first quarter, while other areas showed negative movements. Equally, looking at housing types, flats in Aberdeen, Ellon and Inverurie showed positive movement or stability, while Stonehaven and country flats suffered decreases. Semi-detached and detached generally declined to some extent. The picture seems, on the whole, rather confused but slightly depressing. What are we to make of all this?
It is always worth looking at these figures, as they tell us what has happened. Elucidation or enlightenment might be found in looking further into additional information.
The first place to look, perhaps, is the general background. Local and national economic conditions will have an effect on folks’ decisions. The situation, in that area, is complex, with some good news and some not so good news. Inflation has decreased, but not yet to the level forecast. Hoped for reductions in interest rates have not taken place and Banks have (very slightly) increased some fixed rate loans.
World affairs are far from cheerful, and the daily news in the UK, can be discouraging. Nevertheless, recent figures, from the beginning of the sale process in our area are mildly encouraging. Our raw figures show that, in the first quarter this year, insertions have risen 10% compared to 2023. Sales have increased by 4%. (The average price has also risen – by 3% – but “average price” is an unreliable guide.) These figures reflect the start of a process and, while they relate to only one quarter, they are mildly encouraging. Generally speaking, the main factor affecting private housing markets is confidence. If individuals feel confident about their future, they will take on mortgages and make decisions for their future. If confidence is lacking, people will sit tight. Confidence, at the moment is probably pretty low, due to various factors, some of which I have alluded to already. It is an election year (and at the time of writing it may be a year of UK and Scottish Government, elections.) A double whammy if you are pessimistic, a double shot in the arm if you are optimistic.
Little wonder then that the market seems uncertain, and difficult to read. I can offer a grain of hope, possibly. The first quarter this year seems to have been a touch improved, compared to last year. The second quarter of each year is, normally, the most active and we should know, by July, if this will be a year up, or a year down.”
Further information can be obtained from John MacRae, Chairman of Aberdeen Solicitors’ Property Centre e-mail, [email protected].
