The Ukrainian Prime Minister has warned that World War Three will ensue if Russia is not defeated in Ukraine, while the UK, US and allies are currently urging Israel not to retaliate directly against Iran after its attack at the weekend to avoid a wider conflict in the Middle East.
Ukraine’s leaders have previously said that a failure to tackle Russia in Ukraine would embolden it to invade other countries including Poland – a Nato member. There are also fears that a Russian victory could embolden China to invade Taiwan, which it claims is part of its territory.
Fears have been rising that the bloody war in Gaza could escalate into a full regional conflict across the Middle East as Israel’s government continues to consider options for retaliation after Iran’s unprecedented aerial barrage at the weekend.
Foreign governments are urging restraint to limit escalation that could lead to Tehran speeding up its nuclear weapons programme.
So are we facing WW3? Here’s what the experts and politicians say.
Would Russia invade other countries if it won in Ukraine?
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that without greater action, “Ukraine will fall…the global system of security will be destroyed” and there could be further conflicts.
“At the end of the day, it could lead to the Third World War,” he told the BBC.
It comes after Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said that if Russia won the conflict, it could next invade Poland, triggering another global war.
British Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has echoed concerns about wider global conflict, saying that the West must be “very, very clear that this is existential – it’s not just about Ukraine”.
Earlier this month, Polish President Andrzej Duda also warned that Russian leader Vladimir Putin would attack other states if it won in Ukraine.
Several countries bordering Russia, including Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, are members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato).
Nato’s Article 5 states that an attack on one country is considered to be an attack on all member states, leading to fears that a Russian attack outside of Ukraine could draw all 32 members states – including the UK and US – into direct war.
Last year, a missile landed in Poland, killing two people and sparking Nato crisis talks. Early reports from senior US intelligence officials suggested that Russian missiles had crossed into Poland, leading to fears of a dramatic global escalation, but later assessments suggested the missile was launched by Ukrainian forces to intercept incoming Russian rockets.
In January, the Polish Government mobilised F-16 fighter jets and a Nato air tanker to protect Polish airspace amid Russia’s barrage of missile attacks on Ukraine.
However, the UK has repeatedly sought to avoid coming into direct confrontation with Russia. In February, the UK Government rejected a proposed plan by France to send Nato troops to Ukraine.
Germany, Spain, Poland and the Czech Republic all also distanced themselves from any suggestion they might commit ground troops to the Ukraine war, now in its third year.
Would a Russian victory embolden China to invade Taiwan?
Fears of a wider escalation of the Russian-Ukraine war extend beyond Europe.
Mikhail Khodorkovsky, an exiled Russian tycoon and vocal critic of Putin, warned last year that a Russian victory in Ukraine would embolden China to invade neighbouring Taiwan.
Beijing sees the island nation as part of Chinese territory and has been escalating its rhetoric around territorial control in recent years.
“A lost war in Ukraine is a steppingstone to war in the Asia Pacific,” Mr Khodorkovsky told The Washington Post. “You need to understand that when even a big guy is hit in the face, a number of other guys will start to doubt whether that guy is really that strong, and they will want to go for his teeth. … If the US wants to go to war in Asia, then the most correct path to this is to show weakness in Ukraine as well.”
Could the war in Gaza escalate to the wider Middle East?
It comes amid warnings of a dramatic escalation of the war in Gaza which threatens to envelop the wider Middle East.
Iran launched a wave of drone and missile attacks on Israel during the weekend, in response to the assassination of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) generals by Israel in the Iranian consulate in Damascus on 1 April.
It marked the first direct attack on Israel by Iran during their long-term proxy war.
Israel has vowed to retaliate for the attacks, despite calls from its allies including the UK not to escalate the crisis further.
While some members of the war cabinet were understood to have proposed an immediate retaliatory strike, this was called off due to pressure from US president Joe Biden, the New York Times reports.
Mr Biden is keeping all options “on the table” as he considers whether to rekindle a deal to stop Iran producing nuclear weapons as part of wider diplomatic efforts to prevent all-out war in the Middle East, sources told i.
A former agent in Israel’s spy agency Mossad claimed Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu had not ruled out striking Iran’s nuclear sites.
However, experts maintain that a solo Israeli attack on the nuclear sites is unlikely as its military lacks the capability to significantly damage them without US support.
A wargame conducted by a Washington think-tank that simulated an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites found that they would be ineffective and lead to “devastating conventional missile strikes against Israel” from Iran-allied militias Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis of Yemen, resulting in a full-scale war.
Linda Robinson, senior fellow for foreign policy at the US think-tank Council on Foreign Relations, said: “There is no doubt that Israel will respond with some kinetic or non-kinetic measure, but it is also aware of the benefits it reaped from international support in the wake of the Iranian attack.
“That support is at risk if it goes all out. Netanyahu has said Israel will make its own decision, which of course it will, but it will need allies for the road ahead.
“I’ve been assured by officials that Israel is leaning toward a restrained response, and that the decision is in the hands of a very small group of people, excluding the hard-right members of the cabinet.”
With Israel still deliberating over its response, there are hopes that a further escalation may still be avoidable.
Jonathan Panikoff, the director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, said Israel is “almost certain to respond” with strikes of its own but that he expected the response to be “specific and contained and won’t lead to another significant Iranian response”.
The Gaza war has already spilled over into other parts of the Middle East, with persistent exchanges of fire between Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel.
An Israeli MP told i that the country is preparing for a scenario of war on three fronts, but the conflict has so far avoided full-scale escalation.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has come under pressure from senior Tories and the Israeli government to ban Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation in the wake of the attack, but has been resistant to doing so to avoid jeopardising the UK’s ability to engage with Tehran.
How pivotal is this moment?
“In one sense the situation now is far more perilous than it was in 1914 and 1939 because the major powers all have nuclear weapons,” Dr David Wearing, lecturer in international relations at the University of Sussex, told Sky News.
“The danger here is not that one side takes the pre-meditated decision to spark the apocalypse, but rather that a conflict or area of tension escalates to a certain point, one party makes a move that another party misinterprets, and then a nuclear exchange begins despite the fact that no-one was looking for one. We should take that risk very seriously, especially over Ukraine and Taiwan.
How should the UK prepare?
Amid escalating global tensions, senior figures within the UK’s armed forces have been calling for greater defence spending and an increased number of military personnel.
General Sir Patrick Sanders, the head of the British Army, said UK citizens should be “trained and equipped” to fight in a potential war with Russia, prompting a national discussion about the prospect of conscription.
The UK’s former top NATO commander, General Sir Richard Sherriff, said this was something the country should consider.
Former senior army commander General Sir Richard Barrons told i that the Armed Forces are “wafer thin” and must be rebuilt, warning that the British people must be prepared for military conscription and making other sacrifices to defend the UK if Russia attacks.
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has warned of a wave of conflicts involving China, Russia, North Korea and Iran in the next five years, saying we are moving “from a post-war to pre-war world”.
However, the Government has said there is no plans to introduce conscription.
A Ministry of Defence spokesperson said: “We have been clear that increasing recruitment and improving retention across the services is a top priority, but there is no suggestion of a return to conscription.”
The Chancellor has insisted the Government will reach its target of spending 2.5 per of GDP on defence, from its current level of around 2.2 per cent, “when economic conditions allow”.
